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Where We Are At
17 June 2020
New research from Oxford Economics projects a combined revenue drop of £74 billion for the UK’s creative industries in 2020 (£1.4 billion a week), with a GVA drop of £29 billion.
406,000 (1 in 5) creative jobs expected to be lost - more than nine times the entire workforce of British Airways or almost triple the workforce of Asda in the UK.
Impact to be felt in all parts of the UK, with creative industries projected to be hit twice as hard as the wider economy overall and up to three times as hard regionally.
A PRESS RELEASE ISSUED TODAY BY THE CREATIVE INDUSTRIES FEDERATION STATES: The Creative Industries Federation has today warned of a “cultural catastrophe” as newly commissioned research from Oxford Economics reveals that the UK’s creative industries are on the brink of devastation. The UK’s creative sector was previously growing at five times the rate of the wider economy, employing over 2 million people and contributing £111.7 billion to the economy - more than the automotive, aerospace, life sciences and oil and gas industries combined.
The new report, The Projected Economic Impact of Covid-19 on the UK Creative Industries, projects that the creative sector will be hit twice as hard as the wider economy in 2020, with a projected GVA shortfall of £29 billion. Many creative sub sectors are expected to lose more than half their revenue and over half of their workforce. Despite the Job Retention Scheme, the report projects that 119,000 permanent creative workers will be made redundant by the end of the year. The impact on employment is set to be felt twice as hard by creative freelancers with 287,000 freelance roles expected to be terminated by the end of 2020.
Regionally, London is projected to experience the highest drop in creative industries GVA, seeing a £14.6 billion (25%) shortfall. However, Scotland and the North East are expected to be hit hardest relatively, with projected GVA decreases of 39% (£1.7 billion) and 37% (£400 million) respectively. 1 in 6 (112,000) creative jobs could be lost in the capital, with the West Midlands expected to be most impacted in relative terms, with 2 in 5 creative jobs in the region projected to be lost. The North West and South West will also be hit hard, with both projected to lose around a third of creative jobs. This could represent a major setback to the levelling up agenda, particularly in light of research from Cambridge Econometrics, released by the PEC/Creative England this week, which suggests that, based on recovery from the 2008 recession, creative industries outside of London may take much longer to ‘bounce back’ than those in the capital.
Creative industries GVA projected to fall by £29 billion (-25%), with the creative industries being hit twice as hard as the wider UK economy*
*OBR estimate for UK GDP growth this year is -12.8%.
Creative industries projected to lose 406,000 jobs and £74 billion in revenue (-30%).
Music, performing and visual arts projected to lose £11 billion in revenue (-54%) and 57% of jobs (178,000) with theatres, recording studios and concert venues remaining closed.
The music industry is projected to lose at least £3 billion in GVA (50%) and 60% of jobs (114,000), with the sector being hit hard by the collapse in live music and touring.
Theatre projected to lose £3 billion in revenue (61%) and 26% of permanent jobs (12,000), although this estimate only takes into account current cancellations and does not account for the reluctance of audiences to return to venues (only 20% would return on opening night according to a survey by Indigo). Further research from UK Theatre/SOLT shows that, without further intervention, job losses in theatre across permanent and freelance roles is likely to number over 200,000 (over 70%).
Film, TV, video, radio and photography could lose £36 billion in revenue (-57%), with the sector projected to lose 42% of jobs (102,000) as social distancing constraints affect cinema capacity and the cost of filmmaking.
* The BFI reported last month that 65% of film and high-end TV production had to be put on hold during the shutdown, although film and television production is now restarting following the introduction of extensive social distancing guidance.
Postproduction and VFX could lose £827 million in revenue (-58%).
Radio projected to lose £186 million in revenue (-21%) as it sees a decline in advertising.
Crafts could lose £513 million in revenue (53%), with the craft economy projecting to lose 47% of jobs (58,000) as many craft practitioners experience the fallout of closed workshops and retail spaces.
Design and designer fashion within creative industries could lose £2 billion in revenue (-58%) and 30% of jobs (51,000). When we look at the reach of design across the economy, the risk is far greater, with a potential GVA drop of £37 billion (-47%) and over 300,000 jobs projecting to be lost.
Advertising and market research could see their turnover drop by £19 billion (-44%) projecting job losses of 26% (49,000), with spend on advertising expected to drop by £4 billion in 2020 (-17%).
Publishing could lose £7 billion in revenue (-40%) and 26% of jobs (51,000), affected by the closure of bookshops and decline of print sales.
Museums and galleries could lose £743 million in revenue (-9%) and 5% of jobs (4,000), with the impact being mitigated by being able to reopen in July under social distancing constraints.
Architecture projected to lose £1 billion in revenue (-24%) and 2% of jobs (1,800 jobs).
2 June 2020
Some positive news today...
Following the decision of the Bavarian State Government, Staatstheater am Gärtnerplatz will be able to present events with up to 50 spectators from 15 June. While the performances originally planned until the end of the season cannot take place, specially designed concert performances have been announced. These include "Behind the Curtain" for which a maximum of 50 visitors each have the unique opportunity to change perspectives and experience the Gärtnerplatztheater from seats on stage with a beautiful view into the auditorium. gaertnerplatztheater.de
Dancers at Opera Ballet Vlaanderen have been allowed back into the studio today, and to resume their dance training under strict conditions. The dance studios at Theater 't Eilandje have been declared 'Corona-proof' by the independent External Service for Prevention and Protection at Work (EDPBW). Opera Ballet Vlaanderen is thus the first major company in Belgium to cautiously begin to return to normalcy. Training is arranged in small groups and will not yet be daily. Facemasks will be available for wearing during training but they will not be mandatory, but social distancing will be mandatory at all times. Separate walking routes have been created throughout the building and the limited use of locker rooms and showers will be permitted. The studios will be disinfected after each training session. "We are not holding any rehearsals yet, and large-scale productions onstage for a full audience are still out of the question", emphasises company manager Kiki Vervloessem. "But dancers who work at the level of our company need to keep up their condition and work on their technique. That is virtually impossible to do in an enclosed situation at home. In an initial phase, the aim is to let them start building their condition and technique back up. There are now three dance training sessions per week instead of six and they last an hour, followed by a specific individual workout. We will be evaluating this relaxation of the restrictions on the short-term."
30 May 2020
While our media is far more concerned with trips to Barnard Castle, the last week or so has at least seen a few articles in the national press focusing on the perilous state of the arts in the UK. With social distancing expected to remain in force until a vaccine or cure for Covid-19 is found, the economic reality of live performances in theatres is unsustainable. Without any money being generated by tickets sales, several London theatres have implied that they are within weeks of bankruptcy and few anticipate being around by the end of the year. Whilst the Arts Council England has allocated £160m of emergency funding, and a government-led task force that includes English National Ballet’s Tamara Rojo, the Arts Council’s chair Nicholas Serota and Mark Cornell, chief executive of Ambassador Theatre Group, is working to overcome the crisis, the problems remain.
For dancers the situation is extreme, because you can’t simply put a dancer on hold for six months and then expect them to leap into action. A professional dancer needs to train regularly, and while the inventiveness of many to maintain a degree of flexibility and strength by doing a daily barre in their kitchen has been uplifting, a dancer actually needs to dance and for those without a sizeable home studio, this has been impossible over the last few months. So is there any way at all out of this mess?
I spoke to three artistic directors who have thought and acted creatively in their dancers’ best interests without, in any way, compromising their safety. Ingrid Lorentzen in Oslo has instigated a whole tour of concert performances for small groups of the Norwegian National Ballet’s dancers, while both Ted Brandsen and
Christian Spuck, heading the Dutch National Ballet and Ballett Zürich respectively, have negotiated with their governments to allow dancers to return to class, whilst maintaining all the required distancing rules, by likening dancers’ needs to those of professional athletes.
Annarella Roura Sanchez, who runs the very successful Academia Annarella in Leiria in Portugal, has also used a similar tactic and was even able to persuade the local theatre to open so that a performance, featuring dancers sharing quarantine or living together, could be staged and filmed. It was duly broadcast on social media to much acclaim. Dancers’ stories on Instagram also show that the National Ballet of Portugal, Bayerisches Staatsballett and the National Ballet of Estonia have now opened their studios to dancers.
Fortunately, technology is now very much on our side and so, in addition to a plethora of recorded performances, an increasing number of online study courses are now being organised – Russian Masters Ballet director Asiya Lukmanova explains how she is working with the Vaganova Academy. We have also recently ‘met up with’ Nikisha Fogo, currently a principal with the Wiener Staatsballett but heading for San Francisco next – let’s try to be optimistic – season, and also Maina Gielgud, who has been in South Africa staging her new production of Swan Lake for Cape Town City Ballet. Not only did Nikisha film her own interview as we spoke on the phone, she also made a very neat little film. There is, it seems, a film-maker in every dancer, and ten dance students from around the world submitted their own videos which are included in our Dancing under Lockdown film.
Cancellations and Postponements Announced
The Organizing Committee of the Havana International Ballet Festival "Alicia Alonso" have announced the postponement of the 27th edition until 2022.. The celebration of the Centennial of Alicia Alonso, planned within the framework of the Festival, is postponed until the end of this year, on dates closer to the anniversary of her birth on 21 December.
Hong Kong Ballet's upcoming world premiere production of Romeo + Juliet, originally scheduled for 5 - 7 June 2020, will now be postponed to 18 - 20 September 2020.
Birmingham Hippodrome will remain closed until 2 November 2020.
Dance Europe and Covid-19
1 May 2020
As live performances are the driving pulse of our magazine, and such are currently impossible to review, it has been decided that rather than produce editions that fail to meet our criteria and our readers’ expectations, it would be better to wait until the current lockdown is, in part, less restricting. We are therefore temporarily suspending the publication of Dance Europe for three months.
Provisionally, we are still planning to publish our double summer issue, August/September, which will focus on companies’ plans for the new season. In effect, this means that subscriptions - both printed paper and digital - will be extended three months so that subscribers will still receive the number of issues they have paid for, albeit over a slightly longer period of time.
In the meantime, for May, we have published a complimentary digital edition which can be accessed on our home page by clicking on the front cover. Additionally, our website is listing performances that can be viewed online, adding them as they are announced, and we are planning other features. We apologise for this inconvenience due to circumstances beyond our control.